The G20 circus starts today in Asheville, North Carolina. Overnight, the United States hit two Iranian launchers on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz after IRGC forces were seen preparing to fire sea-mine rockets into the shipping lane. Iran answered by striking U.S. bases in Jordan. First real exchange of fire in weeks. Add Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech from Friday, August 28, and the market now prices a September rate hike at roughly 57–58 percent.

Brent jumped 2.4–2.7 percent to just over $90. Asian stocks opened lower. That part is simple.

The part that is not simple

Energy shocks work like a tax. They hit consumers first, then feed into everything else through freight, chemicals, and wages. For the Fed that means the easy doors are shut. Printing more money or cutting rates into this would be pouring gasoline on a fire someone else already lit.

What did not happen is the textbook safe-haven script. Gold did not rally. Yields did. The metal took another hit Friday when Warsh spoke and has not staged a convincing rebound this morning. Higher real rates beat geopolitics on the tape, at least for now.

The real squeeze is broader and duller: higher oil, higher shipping insurance, tighter money. That combination can nibble margins in electronics and hardware without gold doing the heavy lifting. Smaller firms with thin buffers feel it first. The giants complain later.

And the krona?

Still the same old question. Will the dollar keep bullying SEK, or do we get another day in the slow-motion debasement lounge we like to call home? I don’t know yet. Neither do the people in Asheville.

If this is a breath of fresh air, it smells like jet fuel and central-bank speeches. I’ll take the honesty over the metaphor.

Watch the open. Then tell me if I’m wrong.