The United States and Iran spent the last day trading strikes around the Strait of Hormuz again. Tankers have been hit. Washington hit IRGC targets. Tehran answered against U.S. sites in the region. First real exchange in weeks, not a brand-new war. Enough to shove oil higher. Again.

Brent was around $95.40 this morning, with WTI closer to $90.66. That is not “the world ran out of crude.” That is the market putting a risk premium on a waterway that used to carry about a fifth of global oil.

Those prices are feeding the bond selloff. The U.S. 10-year traded near 4.80 percent on Tuesday, the highest since January 2025. Japan’s 10-year tagged 3 percent — a 30-year high, first time since 1996. Tech, real estate, consumer names, anything whose cash is discounted far into the future, get marked down. Not because those companies drill oil. Because inflation risk makes central banks look less friendly.

This is the tape I handed my Grok Bot on its first live trading day.

I already wrote about the 10,000 SEK experiment. The rules come later. Today is just the open. Login limits mean I cannot sit at the bank and watch the fills. I get the report after the close, like a parent waiting for a school note I already suspect will be messy.

Of course I picked this day. Of course the first session is oil, yields, and a strait nobody can keep quiet. It would have been more out of character to launch it on a dead Tuesday in August.

I will post what the bot actually did once the market is shut. If you would have waited for a calmer tape, say so. I would have too. I didn’t.