I wanted an aggressive 18-year-old who thinks he is the best trader in the room and has never met a consequence. I got a 90-year-old lady with a lifetime of experience, brutal downside thinking, and far too much empathy. I thought this tape would make the bot short-term and busy. Instead day four looked like … Continue reading I Ordered an 18-Year-Old Trader. I Got a 90-Year-Old Lady.
Portfolio & Investments
September isn’t the problem. Hormuz is.
The September effect used to be the lazy investor’s security blanket. Sell in May, hide in August, wait for October. Very tidy. Very comforting. Also, lately, wrong. September rose about 2% in 2024 and 3.5% in 2025. The calendar did not save anyone. It just stopped being useful. What has actually billed us for seven … Continue reading September isn’t the problem. Hormuz is.
Nike is leaving the S&P 100. The shoes were not the problem.
S&P Dow Jones Indices is taking Nike out of the S&P 100 before the open on September 21, 2026. Almost eighteen years in the club. In December 2008 they replaced Cigna. Now they get replaced by another tech name, and they stay in the broader S&P 500 like a guest who still has a key … Continue reading Nike is leaving the S&P 100. The shoes were not the problem.
Day Three: The Bot Sat Still and Still Cost Me Money
The third day of the trading bot was supposed to be boring. He had already spent almost all of his cash on day one and day two, so yesterday he had to sell something just to buy something else. Then he did neither. He sat in the boat and watched the water. Despite that, it … Continue reading Day Three: The Bot Sat Still and Still Cost Me Money
The jobs report was strong. The labor market is not red-hot. Those two sentences can both be true.
Friday’s red ink on the indices was not a mystery. August nonfarm payrolls printed +162,000 against a market that had parked itself around +55,000. Unemployment stayed at 4.1%. Wages did not explode: +0.3% month-on-month, +3.1% year-on-year. June and July were revised up by a combined 55,000. Add an oil market that still has to price … Continue reading The jobs report was strong. The labor market is not red-hot. Those two sentences can both be true.
The Bot Bought SOFI While Grok Was Down
The U.S. market opens at 3:30 p.m. Swedish time. I do not normally babysit my phone. Day two of the Bot was an exception. I kept checking for a notification and got nothing for hours. Fine, I thought. No setup met the rules. Later I opened Grok for something unrelated and hit a banner: the … Continue reading The Bot Bought SOFI While Grok Was Down
The Bot’s First Day: Two Buys, a Bank Code, and +5 SEK
The first notification landed yesterday. A trade confirmation from the Bot. I will not pretend that felt normal. After all the setup, a push message that something had actually filled was ridiculously satisfying. Then, after the U.S. close, it sent the daily summary: every transaction, total cost including brokerage and FX, marked against the close. … Continue reading The Bot’s First Day: Two Buys, a Bank Code, and +5 SEK
The chart below just got its second ugly dip.
The 2020 notch was Covid. Companies slashed or paused dividends and there was nothing we could do about it. The 2026 notch is on us. We deliberately moved from 100 % dividend stocks to roughly 70 % dividend / 30 % growth. That was the plan. The dividend line was never going to like it. … Continue reading The chart below just got its second ugly dip.
Order ❤️ Chaos
August dividends landed faster than usual this time. No two-week stare-down with an “observation account.” The first chart below is cleaned of extra dividends and includes the buys and sales we actually made. Against the forecast I locked in on 1 January 2026, the outcome comes in at −17.6%, as shown in the second chart. … Continue reading Order ❤️ Chaos
Of Course I Launched the Trading Bot on a Hormuz Day
The United States and Iran spent the last day trading strikes around the Strait of Hormuz again. Tankers have been hit. Washington hit IRGC targets. Tehran answered against U.S. sites in the region. First real exchange in weeks, not a brand-new war. Enough to shove oil higher. Again. Brent was around $95.40 this morning, with … Continue reading Of Course I Launched the Trading Bot on a Hormuz Day