By yesterday every September dividend was in the account, and the total sat above the forecast. That is not a victory lap. It is mostly the krona.

The spreadsheet still converts every dollar at 9.50 kronor. Riksbank’s latest fixing, 2 October 2026, is 10.0579. Against 9.50 that is about 5.9 percent of free lift before a single company raised a cent. Late September was already there: the 30 September fixing was 9.98. Strip out the extra dividends and September still clears the line. Currency did the work. The series is on Riksbank’s exchange-rate page.

The second slack is self-inflicted, and I keep it on purpose. I do not mark dividend increases into the sheet during the year. I only mark cuts. By October that unused raise-room is doing some of the lifting on whatever is left to pay.

The part that actually changes 2026 is the Q1 sale. We sold about 30 percent of the holdings and pointed the money at growth names, plenty of which pay nothing. The longer version of that shift is here. In a normal year the cash dividends run well ahead of the January guess, because raises pile up and I refuse to book them early. Not this year. Every sign I have says the full-year dividend total lands just under 14 percent below the figure written down on 1 January 2026. Those are my books, not a published series.

The dividend book is the smaller argument. The growth book is covering that hole, and then some. In 2025 the portfolio value fell nearly 5 percent even though every dividend went back in and we added about 200,000 kronor of new savings. As of 30 September 2026 the value is up nearly 12 percent after the same adjustments: reinvested dividends and new money taken out. Same household. Different mix. The chart for September is the dull proof. Actual above forecast, extras removed, and the gap is still mostly the exchange rate.

A higher dollar flatters a Swedish dividend total. It does not put back the shares we sold.

If the 70/30 split still looks wrong by December, the sheet will say so in kronor, not in a mood.