That is the whole argument. From 31 August to 30 September the portfolio value fell 0.89%. I had already spent the month treating every red day as proof of a larger cut. The S&P 500 closed at 7,686.14 on 31 August and 7,651.54 on 30 September, about −0.45%. A choppy month. Not a bloodbath. My 2–3% was memory, not measurement.

The memory is older than the strategy. Before the shift, the portfolio swung harder. We cut the risk on purpose and moved from a pure dividend book to roughly 70% dividend payers and 30% growth. The standing version of that mix is here: From 100% Dividends to 70/30.

The invoice is the dividend line. Dividends for 2026 will come in below 2025, the first year-on-year drop since 2021. The solid part of the bar is already in. The hatch is still expected, and it is not enough to close the gap.

The value bar is a different story. It is up on the year. That does not automatically pay for a thinner dividend. Facts beat feelings. Feelings do not get a second vote.