The latest attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz on the 13th and 14th are doing exactly what you’d expect: pushing crude higher heading into Monday’s open.

If I actually knew what I was doing, I would have been long oil through this entire protracted mess. But luckily my self-awareness still outweighs my ego. Otherwise I’d probably be sitting here right now with a stack of losing tickets and a phone call asking where I wanted my twelve oil tankers delivered.

That’s the real risk in this game. You can feel smart for weeks… until you’re the one left holding the Old Maid when the music stops.

With oil climbing over the weekend, the U.S. market looks set for a softer open. Nothing dramatic, just the usual hangover from higher energy prices and the reminder that this conflict is nowhere near over.

What’s your take — are we still underestimating how sticky this Hormuz premium is going to stay?