The portfolio is red. That is not the decision.

We moved a large slice of capital from Nordea to Montrose this week. Nordea still classifies us as professional clients, so the shelf is wider. Montrose wins on the clock. The US withholding comes back immediately, and the line shows what the refund actually covers. At Nordea the same money arrives as a lump about every six weeks. By then I cannot see which deduction it belongs to. Cash that sits in a refund queue is not compounding. The accounts are listed on our brokers and accounts.

The red ink has a date on it. Brent closed Thursday at $104.28, up 4.1 percent, on Hormuz attacks and Gulf platforms shut in ahead of Hurricane Isaias. On Friday it gave back about 1 percent, to around $103, after Donald Trump wrote on Thursday that the United States “will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections” on 3 November. He called the talks productive. He also said the blockade of Iranian ports “will remain in full force and effect.” That is not a ceasefire. It is a promise not to add a new strike before the vote, with the economic pressure left on. I expect the tape to stay jumpy until that date. I am not treating the red as a signal to redo the book.

We did sell the entire Rithm position and put the proceeds into National Retail Properties, Microchip Technology and PepsiCo. This is a record of what we did, not a recommendation.

September already taught the cheap lesson. The month felt like a 2–3 percent hole. The sheet said −0.89 percent. The short term is where the losses shout. The refund that arrives in days instead of six weeks is the part I can actually use.